Mass Market or Niche Specific - What a Tablet Needs to Succeed

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – 2011 is going to be an interesting year. No one really knows where the tablet market is likely to take us and as a result, a lot of people are trying to guess. Just the other day, NDP Group threw out one of the biggest numbers I’ve seen yet – an estimate of more than 242 million tablets by 2015. Do I think it’s possible? Absolutely. Do we know for sure that it will happen? Not quite. And yet, part of the fun right now is trying to determine exactly where this tsunami of new technology will take us.

Will Apple dominate for years to come as they did in the portable music player niche? Or will then become one of many high profile players in the market as they did with their iPhone? Will Motorola make a strong debut at the end of the month despite a $799 price point on the Xoom? Or will then struggle to get a foothold against a less expensive, more ubiquitous device in the Apple iPad?

Right now, a lot of analysts are worried about pinpointing who can compete directly with the iPad. Maybe there isn’t a direct iPad competitor, but do we really need one anyways? The iPad fulfils a niche need. Despite its incredible sales numbers in 2010, the device cannot replace a desktop or laptop computer for heavy users. In fact, like many Apple products, the iPad is designed to provide the creature comforts of computing in a sleek, well-constructed frame. It is attractive, it is easy, and it has a LOT of Apps and media.

Other devices do not yet have these features, but that may be okay because in a market that is currently hurdling toward the future, the next big question should probably be “who can deliver the best device in each niche?” not who can provide another mass market device.  

Companies thrive and customers win when the focus is taken away from trying to please the most possible customers instead of playing to strengths and developing a device that does specific things very well. And while devices like the Xoom and TouchPad look incredibly attractive, their success hinges largely on the ability of retailers and the manufacturer to market toward a tech-savvy niche of users who want more power in their devices.

How to Establish a Niche in a Growing Market

I don’t think no one stands a chance as a mass market manufacturer. There will surely be at least two or three very strong devices in the next two years that rise to the top of the field for Android and Windows tablet computing. But, as the tablet market moves forward, I think we will also see a strong shift in focus toward creating niche devices that serve more specific needs.

Even Apple has done this in the past with their Mac OS as Windows took and held a huge lead in the home operating system market. If you cannot be the biggest fish in your pond, find a smaller pond. Apple did that with schools and creative professionals.

And right now, I’m as excited to see what manufacturers do with medical devices and enterprise integration on tablets as I am to see what the next mass market entertainment-focused tablet can pull off. Convertible tablets, 3D based tablets and many more are drumming up interest right now and it’s a good thing. The more companies are willing to seek a specific niche in which they can excel, the more varied and advanced tablet technology is likely to get.

But for now, we are likely to see things shake out a bit between companies like Motorola, HP, LG, and Asus. Apple may have taken the crown in 2010 for mass market device of choice, but there are a lot of alternatives in 2011 hoping to give them a run for their money. 

The Year of the Tablet Consumer

Since CES I’ve felt like we’re building to something – a showdown of sorts slated for this spring. With dozens of new devices coming out in the next few weeks and even a handful of new operating systems set to land, the tablet market is about to change in ways we’ve never seen before. So, what does it mean for consumers? Let’s take a closer look at the state of the tablet market.

Sales and New Products

In 2010, there were 17 million tablet sales, most of which were Apple iPads. In 2011 that number is expected to climb north of 40 million and include a lot more Android and Windows devices. How much more of the share will be for other manufacturers remains to be seen, but one thing we can be sure about is that the ecosystem model developed by Apple isn’t going anywhere.

People want a device that provides a complete system. They want App stores and operating systems they come to know and trust throughout the day. They want a device that is operational but also a part of their identity – and while PCs and phones have done this, tablets stand to be even more of a cultural touchstone because of their mobility and the fact that they will be shared and used frequently in the presence of others.

Developments Coming Soon

As of two days ago, the signs still point to a release of the Motorola Xoom tablet on February 24^th. The Best Buy ad leaking the launch date also pegs the price point at $799 and shows a variety of data plans for those wanting high speed access.

When the Xoom launches it will signal the opening salvo in a yearlong back and forth between Apple and everyone else. While Apple clearly dominated in 2010 it was mostly because they blindsided the market. Other developers were not ready for the raw demand for tablets while Apple played the cards and guessed right. They subsequently cleaned up because of it.

In 2011, things won’t be so simple. New devices will likely come out with better technical specs and stronger performance numbers than the iPad, even after the iPad 2 launches. Apple will surely upgrade their device in April with a dual core processor, much more powerful screen and at least one camera, but will it be 4G? Will it support SD slots? Will it have HDMI out? These and a dozen other questions will fill the articles of tech writers everywhere and will likely impact how consumers respond to the flood of new devices.

And then there are the other guys. We cannot forget about RIM and their Playbook release set for some time in spring or summer. MeeGo may see its first major release in 2011 as the open source OS continues to gain steam. HP continues to promise a slew of new options in WebOS for tablets and Windows 7, despite a lack of new innovations at CES will continue to appear on new devices, including a number of convertible tablet/netbooks.

If 2010 was the year of the tablet, 2011 is the year of the consumer – users will have more options and greater opportunities to make choices that reflect their needs and desires in a device. Now, we just need to sit back and wait to see what the consumers decide. 

Five Things You Need to Ask Before You Choose a Tablet Operating System

It looks like we are only a couple weeks away from the first Honeycomb tablet hitting store shelves. To commemorate the moment and the soon to be rampant iOS vs. Honeycomb conversations, I want to talk about what an operating system should do for its user.

This post is not designed to single out any one operating system and declare it the “best”, though I’m sure we each have our opinions on that matter. Rather, I want to talk about what a good tablet PC should do for its user. We all use technology in different ways so we all have different expectations for what it will do.

1.       Is it Truly Mobile?

One of the primary reasons tablets are so attractive is that they provide an untethered alternative to a desktop computer (and are markedly lighter than notebooks). But, in the age of streamlining and cloud connectivity, is your device really 100% mobile? Remember that tablet computers do not have optical drives and their storage space is usually limited to less than 64 GB (usually around 16-32) with some offering SD expansion slots. If you are required to plugin to software on a desktop or constantly delete and replace files, mobility suffers. In this category, iOS suffers due to its reliance on iTunes while Android works wonderfully due to its support for over-the-air updates and SD backups.

2.       Will I Use it for Work?

Technology makes work easier, so many of us want to use our tablets to reply to emails, check spreadsheets and finish a few last minute edits. Some systems are better suited than others. A Windows tablet has access to Microsoft Office while Android has a burgeoning security environment starting to develop. A lot of enterprise users are waiting for the Playbook to arrive as well, to see what it will offer.

3.       Will I Switch in the Future?

If you plan on changing devices in the future, iOS is out of the question. After spending hundreds of dollars on iOS Apps, it will be hard to make yourself replace them all on an Android or Windows device. Android is likely the most versatile device in this regard. MeeGo, while not yet available in most markets, will likely provide similar flexibility.

4.       Apps or Hardware?

Are you a fiend for the highest end hardware or do you want the largest selection of Apps? By far, iOS wins the App arms race, though Android is close behind and the number of tablet specific apps is only growing. Windows suffers in software, but the devices tend to be decently powerful and provide a good number of enterprise features.

5.       How Often Will I Use It?

Finally, how often do you plan on using your device? If you just want a device to entertain you on an airplane or train, Apple’s iPad is a great choice because of the sheer volume of movies, TV shows and apps. However, if you plan on using your tablet as a complete replacement for your notebook or desktop, you’ll want something more powerful and capable of being fully untethered all the time.

Choosing a tablet device is getting harder with each passing month as new options hit the market. So, be sure to spend enough time getting to know your options. It’s likely the OS you choose now will be with you for some time to come. 

Honeycomb Gets Close and New Devices Start Teasing

There is a lot of news to talk about this week, though on many sites you must sort through page after page of notes on the Verizon iPhone. For those not in the United States, the battle between iPhone users and AT&T isn’t that big of a deal, though it is interesting from the standpoint of market share since, as the largest consumer base for smartphones in the world, when something changes in the US it has resounding effects around the world.

That said, I’m intrigued by the slew of recent release dates, rumours and new content additions that have appeared on the radar of late. To start with, no one can quite figure out when the new wave of tablets will arrive this spring. An errant Best Buy Facebook Page accidentally said that the Xoom would be available on February 24 in the US. While this hasn’t been confirmed or denied, it seems more and more likely considering how long Motorola’s been sitting on this device.

Of course, since Honeycomb officially debuted three days ago, the floodgates are starting to slide further open as more people prepare to launch their first Android 3.0 devices. Our first official look at the OS was nice – the same slick interface we’ve come to know and love from Android but optimized for a bigger screen.

At the same time, news is swirling around the perceived announcement of an iPad 2. No one really knows when Apple will officially announce it, but Darrell Etherington at GigaOm doesn’t think it will be in the next week (at the 4.3 unveiling), if only because it’s too far from the likely launch date and Apple needs to be more careful with their announcements now that they have real competitors. To me, if the Xoom really does hit soon, I see Apple laying out their plans shortly afterwards to cut off the likely sales of Motorola’s new device, but it remains to be seen if that will happen. The price point for the Xoom will have an impact as well.

In other news, The Daily was officially announced this week and along with it a handful of competitors like New York Times’ News.me. I’m interested to see if this surge to provide an iPad newspaper will cross over to other tablets. It’s obvious that the news media and print industry are playing catch up right now, but at some point, they have to start to thinking ahead – whether for new devices or their admittedly weak subscription plans.

I suppose the message from this week is that we’re in a bit of a limbo phase. While there are some new devices hitting the market (the Dell Streak 7 arrived with a slightly disappointing screen and the first Asus Eee tablet with Windows is finally available), the big boys are still on hold – soon enough though we’ll get our hands on the Playbook, Xoom and iPad 2 and can start really arguing over which is best for 2011. 

Getting Behind the Tablet Sales Numbers

One thing that a lot of tablet PC prognosticators like to do is gauge and measure the market, either while a device is available or weeks to months ahead of its launch. So, when we do get data, inevitably it will be thrown around a dozen different ways before we understand what it really means.

Sometimes, numbers are simple. Estimates of more than 13 million iPads beings old seem realistic considering the demand for the device and the capacity at most retailers. However, the numbers for the Samsung Galaxy Tab, which reported to have sold 2 million units, are not quite the same. Usually, statements like this mean “2 million shipped to retailers” not actually sold to end users. We don’t know how many that means, but company statements have already tempered it quite a bit.  

Measuring the Future

What does that mean for companies that have a new device coming out in 2011? What does it take to create a mainstream device and how does the public generally respond to certain features? No one knows. In fact, right now, the only devices on the market to draw data from are the mega-selling iPad and a dozen or so smaller devices with varying reviews and sales numbers – none of them with outstanding selling points.

I think that niche devices like the Playbook will actually sell decently well to their respective markets, though whether they can be mega-sellers in the mass market remains to be seen. I also think that there will probably be at least one other breakout device in 2011 – most likely the Xoom, though LG’s new tablet is starting to look very attractive with the announcement of multi-carrier 4G support and 3D playback.

We have no idea what will drive end-user interest. Reviews, technical specs, and usefulness have never really been the determining factors in what sells in the technology industry. Apple’s products are never the most powerful or the most feature-rich – they are often the “coolest” and that works for them. So, to be successful, does a company need to “out-cool” Apple or can they simply find their way into the niche through a variety of highly useful, mass-market features?

It remains to be seen. But, I have a feeling in 2011 we’ll be doing a lot of number parsing as sales numbers like that of the Galaxy Tab start to pour in. 

Possible Component Issues in 2011?

This year is shaping up to be a banner year for tablet makers with estimates pegged between 30 and 60 million devices being shipped this year. That’s a lot of tablets – almost 15% of the total PC market right now and growing rapidly, but as we all know, these devices don’t necessarily use the same components as a lot of traditional devices. Along with bloggers and pundits weighing in, many market analysts have added their opinion to the fray – some even downgrading shipment expectations due to potential shortages.

We already saw shortages to some degree in 2010 with some areas not getting iPad access nearly as quickly or in as great a number as the demand might signal. Other gadgets contributed to this shortage as Asian supplies of the components in LED backlights were stretched to the limit. So, it’s no surprise to anyone involved with the market that there may be a squeeze in 2011 as dozens of new manufacturers enter the market and attempt to shore up components.

Apple probably won’t hurt. This is a company notorious for measuring and quickly responding to demand for their products. Even when shortages have hit the Cupertino based tech giant, they have responded quickly. What really remains to be seen is how the other companies can respond to the heightened demand. Many companies need to buy components and that means getting orders in early without taking on too much financial burden before a product goes to market.

What this probably means is that most of the companies out there with big names and sure demand like Samsung with their Galaxy Tab and Motorola with their forthcoming Xoom will be fine. However, smaller companies who want to get into the market without over investing will likely produce a limited amount of initial stock. That could mean that if a device breaks through and becomes extremely popular that it will be faced with inevitable supply problems.

It will be interesting to see what all of these means for an industry that is already in upheaval mode right now. Will we see new players who were smart about their component orders and big companies fail because they didn’t think ahead? Or will everyone simply have trouble finding their next device this year? 

Five Things a New Tablet OS Needs to Succeed

In 2010, we saw the arrival of the first new tablet OS since Windows 7 was launched in the form of iOS. Android showed up on some tablets as well, though the first tablet-specific Android iteration is still a few months away. That means 2011 is shaping up to be a year of showdowns and epic feature comparisons between all the new tablet operating systems set to hit the market, including Honeycomb, RIM’s QNX OS, WebOS, and MeeGo – all slated to make their tablet debuts in the next 6 months. Along with a probably upgrade to the iOS in 5.0, what does each of these operating systems need to do to succeed in a suddenly very crowded market?

Security Options

Right now, the consumer market is booming. Children, college students, and 9-5ers are all clamouring for a new tablet to carry with them. But, the biggest market not yet invested in tablet computing is the enterprise field and that’s because of the lack of security on those devices. Android and iOS devices simply don’t have the necessary interface or tools needed to support a corporate system like RIM does. Whether the Playbook is the solution or not remains to be seen, but the tablet that pulls off a secure corporate environment first that is easy for IT departments to maintain will have a huge jumpstart.

Low Learning Curve

Of course, along with security, IT departments look for devices that are easy to pick up and use. We are still in a transitional generation – with many people in the workforce who did not grow up using computers. So, it is important that any new tablet OS be agile and easy to use. I don’t think we need to see an iPad clone, but we also need something more intuitive than the standard touch interface on Windows 7.

  

Unique Target User Base

I don’t know how many mass market devices can be supported in the tablet field. No one does. In personal computing, despite thousands of competitors, only two came out on top – Windows and Mac. Will we see the same very one sided race with tablets between iOS and Android? Or will the new OS options hitting the market target unique niches in which they can thrive – such as enterprise, creatives, or the youth set?

Strong First Party Interface

In 2010, the story behind Android and iOS often boiled down to who had more apps. But, in 2011 I think apps will start to take a back seat to the first party interface tools that come in the operating system. How does the manufacturer design the user experience and how effective are the free, built-in tools that make up the OS. We already know that no one can catch up to iOS or Android in terms of raw apps, and many companies have publically admitted they won’t try, so first party interface is vital to success.

Powerful Hardware

Finally, the hardware. The fanciest, most attractive operating system in the world won’t mean a thing if the hardware running it fails. Toshiba launched a DOA tablet in 2010 that ran a perfectly effective copy of Android, but the device itself was riddled with issues, including poor implementation of some hardware based features in Android. Whether Playbook’s OS or the new Honeycomb edition of Android are good or not will matter a lot less if the devices on which they are being run cannot hold up to scrutiny.

You’ll notice I didn’t discuss Apps as a major feature. Like I said, no one will catch up to iOS and Android. With nearly half a million apps in the App Store and nearly 200,000 in the App Marketplace, it’s too big of a lead. However, that doesn’t mean a new or revamped operating system cannot come out and wow us with strong first party tools, a dedicated niche, and a powerful support system that will drive sales.  

Three Things Android 3.0 Has Going for It in 2011

If last year was the year of the tablet, one has to accept that it was primarily the iPad that gets credit for that. So, if 2011 is the year of the tablet part 2, at least we get to spread the credit to a second platform this year as Android prepares to take over a major chunk of the tablet market thanks to the release of Honeycomb (3.0) and the variety of new devices that will go with it. So, what will drive success for the Android platform in 2011 – here are three possible sources.

Diversity

First up is diversity. With so many devices set to sport the newest Android edition, we know we’ll have a lot of options to choose from this year. Motorola’s Xoom is at the top of the list for sure, but there are also new Android tablets coming from Toshiba, Asus, and Acer. I’m a huge fan of diversity in technology – it forces ingenuity in ways we can only ponder right now. It will be interesting to see who comes out ahead and what features allow them to do so.

Openness

To me, openness is one of the major reasons Android stands to win in 2011. As more users come into the tablet market, there will be a greater emphasis put on being able to do whatever you want with your device. Access to Flash, integration of custom apps, and security installations for enterprise users are all big on many wants lists – and the iPad cannot yet deliver those things. Whether Android can or not remains to be seen, but it certainly stands a chance.

Ideas

Ideas come out of an open platform and diversity in hardware options. That’s what I’m hoping to see as manufacturers try to stand out as a new option in the increasingly crowded tablet market. As the rhetoric heats up between Apple and Android device makers, the opportunity to see new things is only going to increase. Already, we’ve seen the Xoom with its selection of intriguing new features and just yesterday, Toshiba announced their new Honeycomb tablet would sport a swappable battery (something we’ve been hoping for in a tablet for months now).

The Other Side

Android tablets are set to make a huge impact on the market this year. However, it’s entirely up to the manufacturers of those devices to make it happen. Right now, we’re seeing rumors of a $799 Xoom tablet from Motorola and last year, Toshiba’s first tablet foray was a certified disaster, so having Android 3.0 isn’t exactly a slam dunk.

But, 2011 is definitely shaping up to be some kind of year for the tablet PC and right now I’m guessing that Android will have a LOT to do with that. 

And the Numbers Are In...

Just yesterday, IDC released numbers for Q3 sales of tablets around the globe. As expected, those numbers were very good and as expected, a good percentage of them were iPads. Specifically, the numbers show that Apple made up nearly 90% of all tablets sold in the quarter with 4.2 million sales (of 4.8 million total shipments).

Of course, that’s the not the number I’m most interested in. The final numbers for total shipments in 2010 is expected to be roughly 17 million (once Q4 numbers are finalized) and a lot of those will be iPads for sure (though the Galaxy Tab made a nice run at the end of last year). But, it’s the prognostication for 2011 and 2012 that really draws my attention. IDC has pegged the 2011 market to be somewhere in the vicinity of 44 million tablets with 2012 expected to sell more than 70 million.

Of course, no one company could maintain numbers like that alone. Just like with the smartphone market which saw a huge surge in popularity with the iPhone, but ultimately gained most after Android was released, the tablet market looks ready to explode on the precipice of a widespread Android 3.0 rush.

It’s not just Android and manufacturers like Motorola and Asus that are pushing the market, however. Yes, Apple will have a new iPad available soon – probably in April – and it will likely sport at least 80% of the upgrades that Apple’s customer base has been driving for (the usual almost everything upgrade). But, there are also newcomers slated to hit the market soon, including RIM with their Playbook, HP with WebOS, and the newest versions of MeeGo. Windows tablets are still a tossup with third party extension being absolutely necessary at this point to drive any kind of innovation in those devices, but even so, by the time 2012 rolls around, we might be looking at the first Windows 8 tablets.

It’s amazing to see the growth we’ve seen in only the last 9 months. A year ago we were prognosticating that the tablet market might take off any time and Apple’s new device seemed like a tossup – it could be popular…or it could be a flop. And yet, with the iPad wedging open a new market and millions of consumers turning their attention to this burgeoning market, we are getting ready to enter a completely new era in mobile technology and personal devices.

I’m interested to see where it leads us – not just in sales numbers (these companies could sell anything), but in the actual real world uses of those products. How will they impact our lives in the two or three years to come and how will they affect the way business gets done? Those are the questions I am most excited to have answered.

Investing in Your Child’s Future

I am frequently very interested in the technology and ideas that go into devices used by children. That’s not to say that I feel a child should spend 24/7 plugged into an electronic device. But, in an economy that stresses connectivity and mobility more and more in its workers, children need to start learning how these devices work and what they offer much earlier in life.

So, what then would be the greatest tech investment for a child? For a long time, the answer would have been a new computer. Where you put that computer and what you allow your child to do on it are personal decisions, but having at least one desktop accessible in the home for surfing the Internet, writing homework assignments and maintaining contact with family and friends is a must.

But, more and more, the trend is turning away from having the newest desktop or laptop technologies in front of our children and more towards mobile devices. There are a few reasons for this.

First, children can more directly relate to a touchscreen mobile device. They can carry it and instead of using a keyboard and mouse – slightly abstract concepts for inputting data – they can use their finger, something most children excel at.

For all these reasons and more, it makes sense to start a child off with a tablet computer to acclimate themselves to the Internet, email, and other mobile systems that they will be using for the rest of their lives. More than that, there are apps that make a tablet computer even more effective for things like learning mathematics and reading, or simply for reading picture books.

Of course, for those not interested in spending hundreds of dollars to watch their child play with a Galaxy Tab box or drop a Xoom on the floor, there are companies developing less expensive, more durable tablets for children. Unfortunately, these devices tend to dumb things down a bit. We have a habit of making assumptions about just how little our children can understand when using a tablet. In most cases, they can get a lot more out of the devices if we’re willing to provide open access to more advanced operating systems.

I’d be interested to see a company start developing Android tablets for children that are specialized in terms of durable hardware but not dumbed down to the point of inoperability for anyone over the age of 6 or 7. Imagine a child growing up with a tablet that can adjust and adapt with them, showcasing new features and unlocking new opportunities as they learn in school. These are the skills they will need in the decades to come – it makes sense that we should be laying the groundwork as early as possible.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t endorse turning a child away from outdoor activities or team sports as pass times – everything should be done in moderation. But, access and mobility early in life will give children the edge they need as they age to be better at nearly everything they put their minds too. 

The Future of Speed on a Tablet

Coming hot off of CES, it seems that Apple found a way to at least partially circumvent the glowing buzz over devices like the Xoom and Playbook by announcing the Verizon iPhone on Tuesday. Personally, though, I’m still very interested in the stuff we heard last weekend and the impact it is already having on the upcoming tech season.

Specifically, what kind of power will we see under the hood of this next generation of tablet devices? In 2010, the range was relatively diverse. There were ARM 8 processors, a handful of Snapdragons and some proprietary devices that didn’t measure up to the high speed, nearly instant response rate that most users demand of mobile devices.

Now, with many new tablets migrating to WiMax and LTE 4G networks, they obviously need to ramp up the power a little bit and show off what chip manufacturers have been developing in the last three or four years.

Specifically, the first wave of dual core mobile processors are finally hitting the market, and Nvidia’s Tegra 2 is the biggest name among them. For those not familiar with the newest tablet processors, Tegra 2 uses the ARM CortexA9 CPU (dual core), GeForce GPU for high quality 3D visuals and offers full support for 1080p video playback. In short, it’s a full blown mobile computing system in a single chipset.

For reference, it doubles the power present on the iPad while providing the option for four times as much memory. With 4G connections demanding instant access to video chatting services, downloading, and multitasking, it’s almost a necessity. Beyond the raw horsepower, it will offer a breadth of multimedia benefits that Nvidia has become well known for.

For a long time, tablet processors were forced to be either converted smart phone processors, or converted laptop processors. In both cases, the results were less than stellar. Power wasn’t available in the smaller phone chips and laptop chips were often bigger and hotter. Now, with the tablet market taking off, we can look forward to the first real year of tablet-oriented processors.

This is the tech industry, however, and that means the Tegra 2 will likely only be the top offering for a limited time. While it will be present in a number of devices including the Xoom, G-Slate, Streak 7, Acer Iconia, and Asus’s full range of Eee tablets, new offerings are already on the horizon from Qualcomm in the form of a new Snapdragon MSM (8960) and soon AMD and Intel will likely be entering the tablet space with their own mobile processing units.

That’s not to mention Microsoft’s recent “System on a Chip” announcements during CES this year when they discussed new ARM devices being compatible with Windows 8 with full system interfaces in a single chip.

One major mistake the big chip makers made with mobile chips was assuming they were for smart phones only. Not only did the smart phone market expand rapidly to start rivalling home computing – the tablet market is well on its way to doing the same and with mobility increasing daily, soon too will the standard computing industry. Combined, that means a sharper focus on these small, all-in-one chips in the next 10 years. It may not be as exciting as holding the next new tablet in your hands,  but in the years to come it will represent a huge shift in mobile technology innovation.

Tablet Overview from CES 2011

Another edition of CES is out of the way and it looks like we have a second straight “Year of the Tablet” on our hands. Where last year saw the breakout of the tablet market starting with some seemingly lacklustre announcements at CES and driven home by the mega success of the iPad and Galaxy Tab, this year we have quite a few new devices to look forward to, some with interesting features and others with a boat load of unknowns.

Right now, there is no way to know what will come of the surge of new technology. People like to make bold claims as early as possible so that they can say they saw it coming first. I won’t do that, because in a business like this you just never know what will happen. But, at the moment we are seeing dozens of potential “iPad Killers” shaping up with at least one or two of them looking really good.

Another major storyline that I touched on in my last post is the advent of 4G in many of these devices. With Verizon’s LTE network doing so well and Sprint’s 4G network online for the better part of 6 months now, tablets are now aiming for high speed mobile access, which is fantastic because it means a lot more functionality that should be available on a tablet, like video chat outside of Wireless.

The Big Android Question

Of course, most of the new devices on the cusp of being released are waiting for Google to drop their 3.0 Honeycomb Android OS, something that doesn’t have a firm release date (and likely won’t). Beyond merely waiting on Honeycomb to hit the market, we must hope that it works as advertised, without any major hiccups or shortcomings that will give Apple another major opening going into their second generation of iPads.

Assuming Honeycomb does land in good time, we’ll see a huge surge of new tablets hit the market in the next few months including the headliner of CES, the Motorola Xoom. And while Motorola made a great showing in Las Vegas, other companies will have their sights set on a larger cut of this market too including the Notion Ink Adam, the T Mobile G-Slate and the next generation of the Galaxy Tab, promising to have 4G connectivity.

I’ll be honest in saying I was a little disappointed with Microsoft’s showing. The big reveal we’d been hoping for to solve the Windows 7 issues on tablets didn’t come, but there was a lot of good news about how the Windows platform will develop into the next iteration and hopefully how hybrid devices like the Sliding PC 7 from Samsung or the Asus Eee Slate will operate. It’s not for everyone, but the hybrid option is intriguing to me.

Of course, it all comes down to a big guessing game. With three big time Asus tablet releases coming, the new Playbook, Apple’s second iPad, and many others hitting the market in the next six months, there will be a lot of discussion of the “next big thing” and where this market is going. What do you think? Which of these tablets, if any of them, stands a chance of rising to the top (or simply succeeding on a decent scale) in 2011? 

The First Day of CES

The Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas officially started today, so as you can imagine there is a lot of news to sort through. There are a few things that are more interesting than others, though, so here are some highlights as of this morning:

Google’s Android 3.0 Reveal

Not actually at CES, but probably related nonetheless due to the announcement of so many Honeycomb tablets today and over the weekend, Android 3.0 is in fact Honeycomb and as rumoured has been built completely for tablet devices, not smartphones. That means we’re going to get completely dedicated tablet features in the next few months on a slew of new tablets.

What we’re seeing now is as completely overhauled user interface, new keyboard for tablets, and blown up versions of apps that have been, to date, a little unwieldy due to their smartphone roots.

Android 3.0 Tablets

On the subject of the Android 3.0 unveil, there are a number of new tablets being announced as we speak. The Motorola Xoom became official today, featuring the previously rumoured dual core processor (Tegra), 4G, HD video recording, and Honeycomb OS. LG has also announced a new tablet in the form of the G-Slate – details are limited as of right now, but we’ll probably see a lot more very soon. Oh, and Android 3.0 will have video chat through Google Talk.

More 4G Devices

It will be interesting to see if Apple jumps on board with the 4G train too because it looks like there will be at least three or four solid 4G tablets available by the end of Q2 in 2011. The Motorola Xoom was the biggest profile to be announced thus far, but RIM has confirmed 4G capabilities on its new tablet (running on Sprint WiMax for now, possibly more), and T Mobile’s G Slate will also feature 4G. That’s three big time manufacturers with big time iPad competitors coming out in the next few months all featuring 4G connectivity.

Convertible Tablets

Dell already hit us with the Inspiron Duo a few weeks ago, but there are a lot of new convertible tablet/netbook hybrids being announced as we speak. Asus has a new one coming in the form of an Eee tablet and HP has announced their own convertible tablet/netbook option likely to be released very soon.

More to Come

This is only the start of course. I’ll be back in the next couple days with more news out of CES and what it will mean for the tablet computing market. I am still excited to see more hands on time with the Notion Ink Adam, which I personally want to be a fan of (but have been reserving judgment on thus far). Exciting times ahead – stay tuned.

The Wait for Honeycomb

One thing has always remained constant in the tablet marketplace – we’re waiting. For years we waited for tablets to hit the mass market, and then we waited for a competitor to arrive that would do the format justice (beyond the watered down experience offered by the iPad). It appears that 2011 will be the year that we finally stop waiting and finally get the avalanche of tablet products that push the industry forward at a breakneck speed.

And probably the biggest wait right now for both us and a large number of manufacturers out there is the one for Honeycomb – Google’s long awaited tablet-ready Android iteration. Yes, there are Android tablets on the market, but in a market struggling to catch up to the 7 figure head start of Apple, a true tablet-focused option is necessary. With some tweaks, both Froyo and Gingerbread can get the job done, but Honeycomb is poised to be the OS of choice for many soon to be released tablets.

Far from being a secret, Honeycomb is simply on hold with an as-of-yet unannounced release date. We do know, however, that there are a handful of new devices on the slate for the next 6 months that will show off the new OS. The biggest profile of these is set to be the Motorola Xoom (as trademark applications recently revealed the name to be), and possibly a second device from the electronics giant to follow shortly after. However, it is not the only device we’re waiting on. Toshiba has announced its own Honeycomb tablet (yet unnamed) powered by the Tegra 2 and apparently only waiting for the Honeycomb release from Google.

Right now, we don’t really know how these devices will turn out (though Motorola’s recent Droid successes point toward a solid entry into the field and many are still leery of Toshiba’s failure in the catastrophic Folio tablet release). However, with CES only a few days away, the odds are that we’ll see significantly more devices hitting the rounds as manufacturers announce a huge number of devices waiting on Google’s newest OS.

But, for this to truly be the year of the tablet, we need to see other companies step up big as well. Already, we’re waiting carefully for Microsoft’s big announcement in their CES keynote. Last year’s lacklustre tablet showing was disappointing, but Ballmer and co. are promising a new line-up of Windows 7 options, and some people are hoping for a little more beyond that. Then there are the newcomers including a handful of new Meego tablets propagating the industry, RIM’s Playbook, and dozens of technical advancements including Intel’s new SSD solutions, the new APU processor from AMD and our first looks at Pixel Qi displays. And while we won’t see it at CES, we can’t forget the elephant in the room – the iPad 2, likely to be shown off at the end of the month in an Apple only event in California.

The next four weeks look to be a huge boon for an industry segment that finally got off the ground in 2010. So, while we’ve been waiting for a while, it looks like we’re finally about to see something truly impressive. Stay tuned in the days to come for my thoughts on all the news out of CES in Las Vegas.

Video Conferencing and Chat on Tables

Seemingly one of the most valuable uses of a tablet computer has only recently come into the consciousness of many consumers. Video conferencing, not available yet on Apple’s iPad (though highly likely on the 2011 iteration) and available in limited form on the Samsung Galaxy Tab, is making the rounds as the next big tool that all tablet owners should be oohing and ahhing over.

And recent news from the world’s largest video chatting service for consumers – Skype – has me thinking more about the role that video conferencing will actually have on the industry as a whole. Skype’s newest iteration on the iOS for iPad and iPhone now allows users to switch from audio only to video chat (iPhone only for now) and rumors of an Android powered version are strong and likely to come to fruition very soon, alongside the current Qik, OoVoo Mobile, and Fring video chatting apps for Android phones.

Some tablets and phones already offer native video chat. The iPhone’s big new feature in 2010 was Facechat – a real time video chatting tool that only worked between iPhone 4 owners on WiFi networks. It was good looking software but very limited by Apple and AT&T’s current partnership. However, Skype has found a way to circumvent that with their 3G enabled video chatting feature, quickly spreading on other phones, and likely to any tablets that offer a front facing camera.

This, of course, comes after Skype suffered severe outages, with nearly 40% of worldwide users suffering downtime due to a variety of bugs. We’ve learned since then that the outage was not caused so much by overload as by a bug in the newest software version of Skype, but the question still arises as to what the networks, including Skype can handle.

That will likely become less of an issue as Skype starts severely expanding its services in the next few months to handle the demand of mobile video chat. Additionally, we have companies like Verizon and Sprint rolling out their 4G networks already and others announcing 4G networks to come in 2011. To those 4G networks there are likely to go a number of new tablets, including the as-of-yet unannounced Motorola 4G tablet expected in Q2/Q3 in 2011.

To put things simply, video chat is a very important part of tablets. It just fits the needs of the format. Think about how small a phone is versus a 7 or 10 inch tablet, and yet how much more convenient a tablet is than a netbook or laptop when chatting at the airport or in a cab. I am not big on lofty predictions, but in 2011 I think we will see a huge surge of interest in front facing cameras, high speed mobile networks, and video chat, as well as all the secondary uses and ideas that go right along with the technology.

Looking Forward to CES 2011

Right now a lot of people are waiting anxiously for the 2011 edition of the big Consumer Electronics Show. In recent years, the show has been pared down a bit by the exclusivity of many announcements made by companies at their own events. However, this year with the boon of the tablet market in 2010 and so many companies hoping to get off to a strong start in 2011, I’m expecting quite the laundry list of interesting news out of the US in a couple weeks.

I’ve already mentioned the potential announcements that Microsoft has up its sleeve. No one is entirely sure if Ballmer will show off a revamped Windows 7 or if he has something entirely new on the docket. One thing is certain, though. After 2010’s CES, he needs to come out swinging and show off an OS that will truly compete with iOS, the upcoming Honeycomb from Android and possibly even RIM’s Playbook OS, all expected sometime  in spring/summer 2011. I love Windows, but I just don’t think it can compete with the touch-oriented operating systems that everyone else is working with right now.

But, then we have Intel’s recently released documents showing that many major manufacturers including Toshiba, Lenovo, Dell, Fujitsu, and Asus are all working on Windows tablets for release in 2011. It will be interesting to see what comes of all these new projects and how many of them we will see at CES 2011.  

We’re also seeing some snippets of news leak out from a variety of companies that will likely be announcing new products at CES. A Sony device recently won FCC approval for Bluetooth and Wireless connectivity as a tablet – not much is known about the device yet, but it looks to be a hefty device both in size and specifications. We won’t know for sure until January.

Other known announcements we will see include a Motorola Honeycomb tablet (likely with 4G) recently teased at in an internal event for the company. The new device has been referred to as the Everest and Motorola is already whipping out the quips against Apple’s iPad Samsung’s Galaxy Tab and their pared down computing experiences. Will we get to see exactly what kind of horsepower the Honeycomb tablet OS actually holds or will Google continue to hold back details further into the year?

And then there is everyone else. NEC is slated to show their dual screen tablet, while Notion Ink will hopefully give everyone a chance to actually lay hands on the Adam and ensure it is in fact the real deal. And there are always surprises. If 2010 was the year of the tablet, CES 2011 looks to be the celebration with almost every major consumer electronics company in the world bringing its A-game to Las Vegas. 

Cloud Apps that Made News in 2010

Cloud computing isn’t new by any means, but in 2010 it took off in a way that a lot of us have been waiting for a good long time, largely because of the massive surge in popularity of tablet PCs and smartphones. In the past, cloud computing was a convenience factor for people who used multiple PCs or who collaborated with their fellow workers extensively.

Now, however, cloud apps are essentially required if you want to get any real work done on your mobile device. With flash storage of between 16 and 64 GB, tablets are severely limited in what they can hold. To top it off, if you’re working on anything remotely confidential, a lost device could be disastrous if you store files locally. So, cloud apps have suddenly become the norm and companies are getting very large very fast as a result.

Dropbox

Dropbox has been around for a couple years now and in that time it has grown from a relatively small service that provides on the fly cloud storage of key files and easy sharing with users of your choice to the defacto cloud tool for anyone on a tablet PC running Android or iOS. Some technology writers have joked that Google or Apple should just buy Dropbox as it is as necessary as any of the built in apps on either operating system.

The real value of Dropbox is just starting to develop too. Many apps for both Android and iOS have developed ways to share files directly through Dropbox. You can even set automated folders on your hard drive at home that will process, share, or upload files that you create on a tablet, effectively streamlining tasks you cannot complete when on the road. And this is all with Dropbox just now reaching 1.0 status. It will be interesting to see what these folks come up with in 2011.

Evernote

I could have chosen any number of note taking applications, and I personally use One Note on my Windows tablet because it is more efficient in handling handwritten notes and Microsoft’s attempt at cloud computing has, thus far, gone very well for me.

However, Evernote is the clear winner in 2010 in terms of raw user stats and saturation. Most of that is due to their desire to provide a stable platform on every possible operating system. Evernote can be used on PC, Mac, iOS, and Android, and just recently enjoyed an update to 4.0 on desktops, finally speeding it up enough to stop chewing up memory. And while its support for handwriting on a tablet is still lagging, many hand writing apps integrate with the Evernote or Dropbox apps to quickly store notes on the cloud.

There are of course dozens of cloud computing apps that have been important in the last year. Google continued to develop its arsenal of tools with Google Documents, both on Android and non-Google systems. Microsoft’s Live Office was a success in many ways as well. But, as is often the case, the real test of saturation comes in consumer apps, and both Dropbox and Evernote registered massive growth in the last year, thanks largely to cloud hungry consumers. 

The Effect of eBooks on the Tablet Arms Race

If you’ve been in the tablet business for a while, the whole “eBook reader” debate probably seems like a strange impetus for a massive surge in sales, but nonetheless it seems to have had a big impact. For sure, the sheer volume of Amazon Kindles and Barnes and Noble Nooks that were sold in 2009 definitely changed how Apple initially introduced and marketed their tablet, particularly with the inclusion of iBooks, which admittedly hasn’t done that great compared to Kindle and Nook apps.

And no, most people who bought an iPad or Galaxy Tab in 2010 didn’t do so because they wanted to have a really pricey eBook reader, but buried down in there is the fact that a lot of people who would have bought a Kindle or Nook changed their mind when they saw how amazing a tablet could be.

In effect, the tablet market grew faster in 2010 because a lot of people were already considering buying an eReader and decided it made no sense to spend more than $200 on a device that only did one thing. With some careful marketing and the eventual support of the two major eBook distributors, Apple and later Android devices took advantage of this to provide products that did a lot more than an eBook reader for a slightly higher price.

These days I’m seeing a lot of discussions about color eReaders and whether the screen of an LCD device can match digital paper. However, the real issue here is how many people really need a device to read books compared to a device that will allow them to write email, watch movies, surf the web, and read books. More importantly, is it fair to the medium to compare what could be a full-blown computing solution to a gadget like the Kindle?

Is there a future for eReaders? Of course. Amazon figured it out very fast and dropped the price of their WiFi only Kindle to less than $150, well below the entry level prices of most tablets. Unfortunately for them, however, that probably still won’t convince tablet owners to buy yet another device. Despite the battery life, weight, and e-ink display, it just isn’t as flashy and spending another $150 for something that duplicates a feature on their tablet is a tough sell.

That’s why the move by Nook to produce a color unit for $250 is interesting. It partially bridges the gap between the clunky button interface of a Kindle and the super slick touch screen of a tablet. We’ve still yet to see a tablet truly replicate the eReader experience. They are heavier, experience lots of glare problems and are generally more expensive, so people who don’t need or don’t want all that extra technology will shy away.

If Notion Ink’s Adam with Pixel Qi is the real deal, it might be a good solution, as might other future devices rumoured to be considering Pixel Qi. For now, however, there is an oddly symbiotic relationship between eBooks and tablets. Neither side can quite figure out if they are competitors or complementary formats. When they do, it will be interesting to see what happens. 

Microsoft’s New Take on Tablets

The other day, rumors of Microsoft addressing the growing tablet market were circulated, discussing a major announcement at the upcoming CES in January. Presumably at the Microsoft Keynote, Ballmer will showcase some of what we’ve already seen from a recent New York Times article about Samsung’s newest Windows 7 tablet. There are, of course, rumors that Ballmer may throw a curveball our way with an unveiling of Windows 8 functionality on tablets, especially with the expected Apple announcement of the iPad 2 probably coming sometime in January or early February.

With all that said, I find the news from Microsoft interesting, but not necessarily as encouraging as I would have liked. Don’t get me wrong. I love my Windows on tablets and have for many more years than most consumers were aware tablets existed. However, right now the tablet industry is growing rapidly and while hardware is a big reason, the software interfaces of iOS and Android are what make these devices so accessible to their users.

So, when details leaked that Samsung’s newest device, the Gloria, will have a touch-centric portrait interface and a traditional Windows landscape interface, I wasn’t sure what to think. The idea of convertibility in business tablets isn’t new by a long shot. The TegaV2 did it in another way, with dual-boot Android/Windows while other devices like the Inspiron Duo converts from netbook to tablet PC on the fly.

And then there is RIM which has been making hefty claims recently about how their tablet will “redefine what a tablet should do”. I can’t see them producing anything that completely revolutionizes the approach that Apple seems to have forced so many other developers to take, but while consumer tablets are starting to look very much alike, there is still a very wide open field for the business market – arguably the much harder group to placate.

And that brings me back to Microsoft, because frankly, this is a company with the largest business user install base in the world on traditional computers. But, they’ve fallen behind in all things mobile and it’s partially because of a lack of innovation. They continuously play catchup, as can be seen in their recent Windows Phone 7 launch which doesn’t seem to be doing as well as they had hoped (despite a slick interface and solid reviews). Right now, a company that pretty much had the tablet OS space to themselves for the last 8 years has been marginalized as most new tablets are sporting Android or some other non-Windows interface.

Yet, Windows 7, while decent on a tablet, is not designed for tablet use alone, and powerful software tools like Microsoft Office still cannot stand alone on a tablet without some upgrades like InkGestures or Thinix – great tools but necessary add-ons for full tablet functionality.  

I don’t know what Microsoft will show to us in three weeks, but I’m hoping it’s something new and exciting. They really need to blow people away with something that allows for the kind business use that many tablet owners have been waiting for or they’re looking at yet another market that they cannot quite catchup to. 

Tablets and the Learning Factor

I often talk about the many different ways a tablet PC can be used for businesspersons in need of heightened productivity. However, one of the most intriguing aspects of the technology behind a tablet PC to me is how educators and parents will use the devices in spurring development in children.

Whichever device catches your eye, you must admit that Tablet PCs are perfect for the tactile, brightly lit learning that children enjoy so much. Picture books and educational software for old Macs have been the staple of many classrooms for decades, but today parents can get started much earlier with applications on Android (and yes iOS) that help their children learn to read and do figures, as well as enjoy the wonders of the natural world.

The Role of Technology in Education

I am not an educator but as a father I have many thoughts on how we can use technology in educating our children. I am aware that not all parents can afford to invest money into expensive tablet PCs for a three year old preparing to learn how to read. I am also aware that most children will become addicted to the intuitive touch and manipulate nature of most tablet devices.

But, I am still excited by the prospect of providing a device that can actually stimulate an interest in learning through fun, easy to use hands-on interaction. It’s something that will appeal to a much larger majority of children as well. Sure, some kids like to play with computers and some like to read books, not all.

Tablet PCs are an extension of a child’s creativity. From colouring book apps to tracing letters and being coached through simple sums, our children can be fully engaged with an electronic device without getting frustrated by not understanding how it works.

There are dedicated tablets starting to come out from manufacturers who see the promise of a touch screen education for our children. I don’t know if dedicated devices are necessary. Surely, if your budget better incorporates a $200 device with limited features for a child, that may be the only option, but I encourage parents to consider a different route. When considering a new PC that a child will have access to, think on whether a full-featured tablet is a good alternative. Not only will it allow for the same web access and homework assistance that a PC would, it will allow for fun, interactive learning experiences.

Already, we’re seeing some school districts and universities buying up tablets for use by students. They see the value of this kind of interaction with technology. It’s going to be an interesting next couple decades as they fully integrate into our lifestyles, and I hope to see my children poking, sliding, prodding, and best of all, learning the entire way.